ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED
Strong Inflation Numbers and NZ Rate Cut
St George Bank's Weekly Economic Insight - Ms Amanda Tan, Treasury Economist
Thu, 24 Jul 2008 03:00PM
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Ms Amanda Tan
Thu, 24 Jul 2008
03:00PM Australia/NSW
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ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED (SGB)
ASX code: SGB
Website: http://www.stgeorge.com.au/
Industry: Banks
Principal Activities:
Provision of banking and other financial services, in particular Retail Banking, Commercial Banking and Group Treasury and Capital Markets, and Funds Management.
Address:
4-16 Montgomery Street, St George House
KOGARAH
NSW
Phone: (02) 9553 5555
Fax: (02) 9236 1899
Executives & Directors
Mr John Curtis , Chairman
Mr Greg Bartlett , Managing Director
Mrs Gail Kelly , Executive Director
Mr Lindsay Maxsted , Non Exec. Director
Mr Peter Hawkins , Non Exec. Director
Mr Michael Bowan , General Counsel
Mr Sean O'Sullivan , Investor Relations
Ms Alex Crompton , Company Secretary
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ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED (SGB) Events
Australia/NSW
ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED (SGB)
| Substantial shareholder notices - s671B(4) | Thu, 4 Dec 2008 |
| WBC: Australian Taxation Office Ruling | Thu, 4 Dec 2008 |
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| Ceasing to be a substantial holder for CPR | Thu, 4 Dec 2008 |
| Change in substantial holding for WHG | Thu, 4 Dec 2008 |
| Substantial Shareholder Notices | Thu, 4 Dec 2008 |
| Becoming a substantial holder for ANN | Thu, 4 Dec 2008 |
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INTERVIEW WITH AMANDA TAN, TREASURY ECONOMIST, ST. GEORGE BANK’S (SGB)
“Strong Inflation Numbers and NZ Rate Cut”
http://www.brr.com.au/event/48502
THURSDAY, JULY 24, 2008, 3:00 PM
BRR Today on Boardroom Radio, we speak with Ms. Amanda Tan, Treasury Economist at St. George Bank. Welcome to Boardroom Radio, Amanda.
10 SGB Hi. Thank you.
BRR Two key points came out this week, the Australian inflation numbers yesterday which is stronger and then also the New Zealand rate cut.
SGB The domestic inflation figures came in on strong side with the overall inflation
15 rate now running at its fastest pace in 13 years if we exclude the impact of the DST in 2000 and 2001. So looking at the data in greater detail, overall the CPI was up by 1.5% in the quarter and about half of this increase was the result of fuel and financial services and this higher financial services cost is the by-product of higher interest rates and the impact of the credit crisis, so
20 the annual rate of inflation has now moved up to 4.2% from 4.5%. Looking at core consumer prices, this actually came in as expected in the quarter. It was up by 1.1% but the annual rate did climb to 4.4% from 4.3% previously. So both headline and core inflation has accelerated further and remained well above the reserve banks 2% to 3% target band, but despite the strong
25 inflation outcomes our view is that the RBA will still lead interest rates on hold for the rest of this year. This is because there has been increasing evidence that domestic-economic conditions are slowing, and this is something the reserve bank has acknowledged as well. Although much of the increase in inflation was due to higher petrol prices and high interest rates, and these in
30 turn shoot at to the current slow down in domestic-economic conditions given they are constraining influence on spending levels. As a result, the global credit financial conditions are also tighter than what the official interest rate implies. So significantly tight financial condition in the slowing economy would be expected to dilute inflationary pressures and help inflation ease with target
35 bank gradually. The RBA had also actually expected an unpleasant headline CPR reading in this quarter and had marks in outcome of 0.001%. This was because, according to them, it may probably be too soon before the current domestic-economic slowdown has downward influence on inflation. So yesterday’s outcome was not too far away from what the reserve bank had
40 expected, and accordingly, we think that they will look through this and leave interest rates on hold towards the end of this year and this was also what market, markets appeared to have the same outlook as well. Immediately after inflation outcome, the Australian dollar actually did sell off and government bond yields in each are lower.
45
BRR Thanks very much for that update today and how can they get more information?
SGB You can refer to our website where several of economic reports are published and this is stgeorge.com.au.
BRR Remember if you have any questions about this broadcast or any others, please feel free to send me an e-mail at brr@brr.com.au or by the Contact Us button on the homepage. I’m Terence Bell. Thanks for listening to Boardroom Radio.
INTERVIEW CONCLUDED
Contact brr@brr.com.au for more information
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